Jolted awake at 4:00am from my Tiger King-induced nightmare
(seriously) I had a stunning epiphany that for once, President Trump may have
been right. We really can’t let the cure
be worse than the disease. In just a few
weeks, we’ve shut down the entire world economy and locked ourselves indoors,
waiting to be told when we can come back out.
Are we doing the right thing?
Probably. I fear however that in
the face of absolute incompetence from our leadership and the absence of truth,
we are now acting from a state of fear that will have untold consequences for
our future. Police states and dictators
are emerging, people are making irrational decisions to their own detriments,
children’s futures are dimming and the most vulnerable are locked away from the
world and their loved ones. We’ve raced to
make decisions that will negatively impact billions around the work, with no
plan. I’m writing this now for my own
sanity, to help sort out my own thoughts and feelings, to try to make sense of
what’s happening. I’m sharing it now on
the chance it may help others find a momentary blip of sanity in an insane word. Or alternatively, expose myself to criticism
and shame should I be completely wrong.
In dealing with depression and/or anxiety, mental health
experts suggest “reframing” our thoughts to better understand and deal with our
emotions. Noticing a buildup of rage and
anxiety as the pandemic now stretches into the third week of lock-down, I
recognized it was important to take a self-assessment and sort out my feelings,
diving the rational from irrational, the logical from the illogical, and just
setting aside some of my political beliefs in particular to gain a better
perspective on the broader crisis unfolding around us. There are plenty of
people to blame, some more so than others, but that still won’t help me in the
short-term as I’ve been stewing in anger at the pure incompetence of how things
have been managed world-wide. For most
of us, this is the biggest crisis to occur in our lives and unfortunately none
of us were prepared. A few weeks ago I
was making sarcastic jokes about a rocky beach in Israel, and now I’m wondering
when I’ll be able to go back to the United States and see my family, essentially
trapped overseas but happily in service of my country. In the broader scheme of things, I’m doing
well. I’m employed, housed, with my wife
and kids, and mostly healthy, if not twenty pounds overweight and growing. But back to reframing. There are lots of ways to assess our current
situation, but its crucial to establish some baseline truths (as we currently
understand them at least). I believe the
following are factual and truthful, based on expert and professional guidance
(something that has been severely lacking of late by the way);
- The virus is not a plague
- Many if not most of us will eventually be
infected
- Most of us will probably survive
- It’s too late to stop the virus
- Our efforts now are to spread out the rate of
infections (flatten the curve) and protect the most vulnerable, not ourselves.
- No one was prepared for a pandemic. What matters
now is how we respond.
These truths should be the foundation of our social
response, but in the absence of leadership, incoherent and contradictory
messaging and the staggering incompetence of many of those in charge, we’re now
letting fear guide our social discourse.
We’re afraid of the virus. We’re afraid of dying. We’re afraid for our loved ones. We’re afraid for our futures. Are these fears legitimate? Absolutely.
Should they motivate us to act?
Certainly. Should they be guiding
our decisions? Absolutely not. Its critical to note that there is no need to
rely on a cold-hearted statistical model to determine an acceptable amount of
deaths as some suggest, i.e. “only 3% of the infected will die” or that senior
citizens should be willing to sacrifice their lives for the benefit of their grandchildren
and the economy. Talk about a horrific communications
strategy. At the same time however, its equally
abhorrent to publicly shame those who aren’t willing to hermetically seal
themselves in a bubble for 18 months as the world collapses around them. There has to be a reasonable middle ground
where we can protect as many lives as possible without burning down the entire
world.
How Did we Get Here?
Facts as they currently stand suggest that at some point
before December of 2019, Chinese doctors noted a number of flu-like illnesses
that were not caused by the flu. A
doctor in Wuhan soon-after realized that a novel coronavirus was the likely cause. Attempts to notify others however met with
punishment by Communist Party officials, allowing the virus to spread up until
the beginning of Chinese New Year, the largest migratory event in the world. Recognizing
the severity of the threat, China then attempted to seal off Hubei province,
but it was too late. The virus had
already spread. World leaders however,
downplayed the threat, some more so than others. In the United States, scientists and experts
raised alarms, yet, at least publicly, some leaders and media pundits dismissed
the virus, comparing it to a regular flu, or worse, suggesting the threat was
hoax. Weeks of this narrative undoubtedly impacted perception of the virus and
fomented resistance to forthcoming measures that would be essential in slowing
the speed of the pandemic. Even as New
York City became the world epicenter of the outbreak, leaders refused to take
preventative measures like social distancing requirements and stay-in-place
orders. Shoppers panicked, buying out
toilet paper and other goods. Gun sales
soared. Fear gripped the nation as the
media focused on the growing numbers of deaths in the country. Trillions in wealth vanished from the world
economy leading us the precipice of the greatest economic calamity in modern
history. This is where we stand at this
moment. Where do we go from here?
SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 / The Coronavirus
I’m not a doctor and don’t pretend that I know much involving
the science behind the virus. I readily
admit I could be wrong about everything I write here. I do however have a lot of degrees with honorary
Latin suffixes attached to them, am a licensed attorney, and an exceptionally
good analyst. My thoughts should count for more than someone waving magic
crystals for a cure, or worse yet, a Fox “News” aficionado. Few of us should
be afraid of the virus. If we’re young,
healthy, non-smokers, with regular immune systems, even if infected we have a
near guarantee of recovery. As the
experts gather more data, mortality rates shrink further, from 3% now even closer
to 1% (still much higher than the seasonal flu however). Nevertheless, it’s the outliers that terrify
us. The marathon runner, father of
six. The new medical graduate just
starting in the ICU. It could be any of
us. That’s why we can’t be cavalier in
how we approach a response. It also
doesn’t mean we can wait for the pandemic to blow over, or sit around for 18 months
to develop a vaccine. Trying to avoid
the false equivalencies of comparing the virus to the flu, or the number of annual
vehicular fatalities, we must understand that COVID-19 will kill a lot of
people, regardless of what we do. Life is not without risk. We risk death every day, from an accident,
heart attack, or even random flukes like a piano falling on our heads. We continue with our lives however, not by simply
accepting all risk, but by taking precaution to minimize risk. Seat belts save lives. Diet and exercise save lives. Science saves lives. As a society, we as Americans have decided
that the loss of 2-3 million lives is unacceptable and so are rightly taking precautions
to minimize that outcome. We must at the
same time continue with our lives as much as possible, without unnecessary fear.
The Masks, Tests, Ventilators and PPE
Our biggest concern right now is with the number of N95 masks,
test kits, personal protective equipment (PPE) and ventilators available, or
lack thereof. Our leaders squandered
precious weeks downplaying the threat of the virus when they could have been
rebuilding our national stockpiles, developing new tests and cures. Our leaders continue to lie about the
availability of these products, the efficacy of treatments, or that medics are
stealing them in spite of the government’s best efforts. This is causing needless panic and fear, when
honesty would suffice. We need ventilators.
Our leaders must do everything possible to produce more ventilators,
right fucking now. Be honest about it
but remember the virus is not a plague, many people will be infected, and most
people will probably survive, including medics on the front lines. The masks are not there for the sole purpose of
saving the doctors’ lives, but also to ensure that not every doctor gets
infected at once. Doctors on the front
lines face a near guarantee they will be infected, but those who are infected now
will gain immunity and will be called upon next when his or her colleague is
infected. Again, the goal is to flatten
the curve and spread out infections. Not
being prepared is a national shame, but there is no need to panic even if a
mask is reused. More are coming soon. The same with everything else (still
ventilators are needed now for fuck sake). For the rest of us, feel free to
wear any other type of mask (not N95) or covering regardless of what the CDC or
Surgeon General says. Remember though,
the masks are not meant to protect YOU, but rather to protect the vulnerable
and others FROM YOU if you’re asymptomatic but spreading the virus. Experts say the fabric may reduce your fluids
and aerosols from reaching other people, but likely too porous and loose to
stop the same from getting in once airborne.
Meanwhile, wash your hands and try to stay home if possible. That’s really all that we’ve all been asked
to do.
Stay Home!!!.... if Possible
The pandemic is sending public shaming and the “cancel
culture” into overdrive. While sometimes
helpful, its not always necessary. It’s
easy to criticize drunken college students having an orgy on the beach (that’s Generation
Z, not Millennials folks) when we’ve all been asked to take responsibility and
limit our physical interactions. Encouraging people to shake hands at a
mega-church out of spite for reasonable distancing measures to proclaim your
faith in God is borderline criminal.
Nevertheless, celebrities yelling at us to stay home from their mansions
or yachts, or calling families who go to a park on the weekend idiots because they’re
standing 5.5 feet away from others as opposed to six is patronizing. We can’t lose sight of why were making
sacrifices right now, which is to flatten the curve and spread out infections
(i.e. lots of people are still infected, but not all at the same time). A recent visit to the grocery store was
enlightening. People were terrified of
each other, giving furtive glances, drenching themselves in hand sanitizer, all
just to buy food. Going shopping shouldn’t
be a crime, and other shoppers are not going to kill you (though the online crowd
might). The goal is to minimize
unnecessary physical interactions. Just
plan ahead, reduce the number of trips you make, and wash your hands before an
after. Its that simple. Also, reassess what you need versus what you
want. If your psychological well-being
depends on going out for ice-cream once a week, that’s ok. If you’re taking reasonable precautions along
with the rest of us, then combined we’re all making a difference and saving
lives. Keep the shaming and guilt to a
minimum. (I got a haircut the other
day. The barber wore a mask, we did fist
bumps, used hand sanitizer before and after, and he sterilized the chair after
I was done. I like my thinning hair to
look good. If I think I look like shit,
I’m likely to feel like shit.
Meaning? For me the haircut was necessary.
Someone could feel the same about their
nails.) Don’t judge. Just be responsible.
Of course, if the medical services are reaching critical
maximums, more severe measures may be needed, but should be reasonable and fact
based. People in London are being arrested
for sunbathing in parks, alone, away from everyone else. London may be reaching its medical capacity,
but is this step really necessary?
Maybe, but maybe not. In my home state, Arizona, the citizenry demanded
that all hair and nail salons be shuttered.
I won’t judge the effort, but it feels more fear than fact based,
especially if other precautions are in place to flatten the curve and the state
has to ability to respond. Time will
tell. In Washington state, police are
encouraging citizens to report their neighbors who in their judgement
are violating isolation rules. Wonderful. KGB-style tactics are being employed and readily
accepted without thought. Will plainclothes
officers show up in the middle of the night to take your neighbors away, never
to be heard from again? Should you keep
a bag by the door for when your paranoid neighbor reports you?
Medical Workers are Heroes
We simply don’t have enough.
The ones we have will need to work without a break for the next 18
months. They are going to see lots of
people die and others horrors most of us will never encounter in our
lives. They are heroes. While many of us are likely to be infected (some
models predict up to 2/3rds of Americans), its almost guaranteed they will, and
some will die as a result. Some already
have. They need to take extra
precautions so they don’t needlessly infect others, including their parents and
children. Their faces are bruised
because their masks have to fit tight.
Their families won’t see them for 18 months because they will be at
work. Retirees who are at much greater
risk from the virus are returning to work to fill in. And its not just doctors. Its nurses, techs, administrators, cleaning
staff, and those who are stacking body bags in refrigerated trucks. They need our support now, and will need our
support later. We need to ensure they
have psychological support as well.
Every single one. Do not call
them thieves, and get them what they need ASAP.
Enough said.
Essential Workers
Some have been laid off, others told to work at home, and
others required to report to work. The challenges
for everyone are paramount. We bandy the
term “essential workers” in our narrative however, which is creating false
divisions in society. All workers are
essential, though some provide services that can be done from home, while
others need to go out to keep our infrastructure moving. Both groups are
equally important. There is a creeping
narrative however that those who can’t work from home are somehow heroes or risking
their lives for the rest of us. With our
basic truths in mind, remember, the issue is not if but rather when we get
infected, slowing the rate of infection so that our hospitals are not
overwhelmed. Should we be outraged that these
workers often are low wage and have no health insurance. Of course! Not because of the virus but
because workers should earn a living wage and not have to fear for the health
from deadlier diseases like cancer. Cashiers,
delivery folks, and others service providers have my upmost thanks and concern,
not because they leave their houses, but because they continue to provide needed
services and work inside a system rigged against them. Congress and corporations should ensure that
these people have access to affordable and quality medical care, regardless of
the virus.
China
Its essential that we don’t forget the role that China played
in this outbreak. China concealed the
outbreak of the virus and restricted international experts from conducting research
at a time when the virus could have been stopped. While China claims to have controlled the
outbreak inside of its borders (we’re not sure if that’s true), they’re now
seeking to rewrite history as they produce medical supplies the world now
desperately needs. We cannot allow
this. Sophomoric attempts to call the
virus the “Chinese virus” or “Wuhan virus” are not helpful. Its xenophobic and puts the physical safety
of ethnic-Asians in jeopardy. It also
rings hollow when public officials try to shift blame away from their own
shortcomings in the pandemic by blaming China.
Incompetence and Chinese culpability are separate issues. When this is over however, there should be a reckoning
for both.
Incompetence
I really can’t say much here lest I get in trouble. My wife already criticized me for posting
some unvarnished thoughts on Facebook, which I’ve since deleted, so for me that’s
problematic enough. If you don’t already know what I’m talking about however,
then you’re likely part of the problem.
Nonetheless, as part of the reframing exercise I do note that no one
was adequately prepared for the
pandemic, with the exception of perhaps South Korea, which recently dealt with
a SARS viral outbreak. While warning
signs were missed, what really matters is how our leadership reacted during the
actual crisis. Unfortunately, most of it
is damning. Never, never forget, no matter how much they try to gaslight us.
What’s Next?
Perhaps the hardest part of this ordeal in not knowing what
happens next. Social distancing...check.
Work at home…check. Shut down the world…check. We’re doing our part to save millions, but what
next? As of now, no competent authority
had advanced plan for what we’re supposed to do next. That’s because people will die. Some foolishly set Easter as a date to reopen
everything, with no factual basis behind it.
Any rational medical professional, who swore an oath to “do no harm”
will suggest we lock down everything until we stop the virus. A basic truth however is that we can’t. A harder truth is that at some point we will have
to open the world back up, sooner than later, and the virus will spread. In the
one time I agree with Tucker Carlson, we honestly cannot let the scientists
make the final decision on this. Science unfortunately doesn’t generally allow
a middle ground. Going back to the basic
truths however, we should be focusing on flattening the curve. Once our hospitals and medical professionals have
the means and ability to handle the surge in admissions, we must reopen. This needs to happen sooner than later. June is probably too late. Infections will inevitable surge again, and
then we will have to take restrictive measure again. During this critical time, our leaders must amp
up production of needed supplies, expand hospital capacity and beds, and
produce more tests. This also likely
means rolling shutdowns. A few weeks on, a few weeks off, until a vaccine is available
for the masses. As more people gain immunity,
as we’re better able to screen and identify the infected, as our capacity to
treat the ill increases (allow more flexibility with the curve), these shutdowns
should be shorter in length. People will
die, but we’ll have saved as many as possible, while not destroying our future. Remember, we’re all making a shared sacrifice. To save others. Not ourselves. Let’s continue to do this
together, with honesty, courage, and competence.
M
