Not an Essay but not Quite and Treatise: A Disquisition on Fear and Incompetence in the Age of COVID-19, Based on a Moderate Amount of Input

Jolted awake at 4:00am from my Tiger King-induced nightmare (seriously) I had a stunning epiphany that for once, President Trump may have been right.  We really can’t let the cure be worse than the disease.  In just a few weeks, we’ve shut down the entire world economy and locked ourselves indoors, waiting to be told when we can come back out.  Are we doing the right thing?  Probably.  I fear however that in the face of absolute incompetence from our leadership and the absence of truth, we are now acting from a state of fear that will have untold consequences for our future.  Police states and dictators are emerging, people are making irrational decisions to their own detriments, children’s futures are dimming and the most vulnerable are locked away from the world and their loved ones.  We’ve raced to make decisions that will negatively impact billions around the work, with no plan.  I’m writing this now for my own sanity, to help sort out my own thoughts and feelings, to try to make sense of what’s happening.  I’m sharing it now on the chance it may help others find a momentary blip of sanity in an insane word.  Or alternatively, expose myself to criticism and shame should I be completely wrong.      

In dealing with depression and/or anxiety, mental health experts suggest “reframing” our thoughts to better understand and deal with our emotions.  Noticing a buildup of rage and anxiety as the pandemic now stretches into the third week of lock-down, I recognized it was important to take a self-assessment and sort out my feelings, diving the rational from irrational, the logical from the illogical, and just setting aside some of my political beliefs in particular to gain a better perspective on the broader crisis unfolding around us. There are plenty of people to blame, some more so than others, but that still won’t help me in the short-term as I’ve been stewing in anger at the pure incompetence of how things have been managed world-wide.  For most of us, this is the biggest crisis to occur in our lives and unfortunately none of us were prepared.  A few weeks ago I was making sarcastic jokes about a rocky beach in Israel, and now I’m wondering when I’ll be able to go back to the United States and see my family, essentially trapped overseas but happily in service of my country.  In the broader scheme of things, I’m doing well.  I’m employed, housed, with my wife and kids, and mostly healthy, if not twenty pounds overweight and growing.  But back to reframing.  There are lots of ways to assess our current situation, but its crucial to establish some baseline truths (as we currently understand them at least).  I believe the following are factual and truthful, based on expert and professional guidance (something that has been severely lacking of late by the way); 

•           The virus is not a plague
•          Many if not most of us will eventually be infected
•           Most of us will probably survive
•           It’s too late to stop the virus
•           Our efforts now are to spread out the rate of infections (flatten the curve) and protect the most vulnerable,  not ourselves.
•           No one was prepared for a pandemic. What matters now is how we respond. 

These truths should be the foundation of our social response, but in the absence of leadership, incoherent and contradictory messaging and the staggering incompetence of many of those in charge, we’re now letting fear guide our social discourse.  We’re afraid of the virus. We’re afraid of dying.  We’re afraid for our loved ones.  We’re afraid for our futures.  Are these fears legitimate?  Absolutely.  Should they motivate us to act?  Certainly.  Should they be guiding our decisions? Absolutely not. Its critical to note that there is no need to rely on a cold-hearted statistical model to determine an acceptable amount of deaths as some suggest, i.e. “only 3% of the infected will die” or that senior citizens should be willing to sacrifice their lives for the benefit of their grandchildren and the economy.  Talk about a horrific communications strategy.  At the same time however, its equally abhorrent to publicly shame those who aren’t willing to hermetically seal themselves in a bubble for 18 months as the world collapses around them.  There has to be a reasonable middle ground where we can protect as many lives as possible without burning down the entire world.

How Did we Get Here?

Facts as they currently stand suggest that at some point before December of 2019, Chinese doctors noted a number of flu-like illnesses that were not caused by the flu.  A doctor in Wuhan soon-after realized that a novel coronavirus was the likely cause.  Attempts to notify others however met with punishment by Communist Party officials, allowing the virus to spread up until the beginning of Chinese New Year, the largest migratory event in the world. Recognizing the severity of the threat, China then attempted to seal off Hubei province, but it was too late.  The virus had already spread.  World leaders however, downplayed the threat, some more so than others.  In the United States, scientists and experts raised alarms, yet, at least publicly, some leaders and media pundits dismissed the virus, comparing it to a regular flu, or worse, suggesting the threat was hoax. Weeks of this narrative undoubtedly impacted perception of the virus and fomented resistance to forthcoming measures that would be essential in slowing the speed of the pandemic.  Even as New York City became the world epicenter of the outbreak, leaders refused to take preventative measures like social distancing requirements and stay-in-place orders.  Shoppers panicked, buying out toilet paper and other goods.  Gun sales soared.  Fear gripped the nation as the media focused on the growing numbers of deaths in the country.  Trillions in wealth vanished from the world economy leading us the precipice of the greatest economic calamity in modern history.  This is where we stand at this moment.  Where do we go from here?

SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 / The Coronavirus

I’m not a doctor and don’t pretend that I know much involving the science behind the virus.  I readily admit I could be wrong about everything I write here.  I do however have a lot of degrees with honorary Latin suffixes attached to them, am a licensed attorney, and an exceptionally good analyst. My thoughts should count for more than someone waving magic crystals for a cure, or worse yet, a Fox “News” aficionado. Few of us should be afraid of the virus.  If we’re young, healthy, non-smokers, with regular immune systems, even if infected we have a near guarantee of recovery.  As the experts gather more data, mortality rates shrink further, from 3% now even closer to 1% (still much higher than the seasonal flu however).  Nevertheless, it’s the outliers that terrify us.  The marathon runner, father of six.  The new medical graduate just starting in the ICU.  It could be any of us.  That’s why we can’t be cavalier in how we approach a response.  It also doesn’t mean we can wait for the pandemic to blow over, or sit around for 18 months to develop a vaccine.  Trying to avoid the false equivalencies of comparing the virus to the flu, or the number of annual vehicular fatalities, we must understand that COVID-19 will kill a lot of people, regardless of what we do. Life is not without risk.  We risk death every day, from an accident, heart attack, or even random flukes like a piano falling on our heads.  We continue with our lives however, not by simply accepting all risk, but by taking precaution to minimize risk.  Seat belts save lives.  Diet and exercise save lives.  Science saves lives.  As a society, we as Americans have decided that the loss of 2-3 million lives is unacceptable and so are rightly taking precautions to minimize that outcome.  We must at the same time continue with our lives as much as possible, without unnecessary fear. 

The Masks, Tests, Ventilators and PPE

Our biggest concern right now is with the number of N95 masks, test kits, personal protective equipment (PPE) and ventilators available, or lack thereof.  Our leaders squandered precious weeks downplaying the threat of the virus when they could have been rebuilding our national stockpiles, developing new tests and cures.  Our leaders continue to lie about the availability of these products, the efficacy of treatments, or that medics are stealing them in spite of the government’s best efforts.  This is causing needless panic and fear, when honesty would suffice. We need ventilators.  Our leaders must do everything possible to produce more ventilators, right fucking now.  Be honest about it but remember the virus is not a plague, many people will be infected, and most people will probably survive, including medics on the front lines.  The masks are not there for the sole purpose of saving the doctors’ lives, but also to ensure that not every doctor gets infected at once.  Doctors on the front lines face a near guarantee they will be infected, but those who are infected now will gain immunity and will be called upon next when his or her colleague is infected.  Again, the goal is to flatten the curve and spread out infections.  Not being prepared is a national shame, but there is no need to panic even if a mask is reused.  More are coming soon.  The same with everything else (still ventilators are needed now for fuck sake). For the rest of us, feel free to wear any other type of mask (not N95) or covering regardless of what the CDC or Surgeon General says.  Remember though, the masks are not meant to protect YOU, but rather to protect the vulnerable and others FROM YOU if you’re asymptomatic but spreading the virus.  Experts say the fabric may reduce your fluids and aerosols from reaching other people, but likely too porous and loose to stop the same from getting in once airborne.  Meanwhile, wash your hands and try to stay home if possible.  That’s really all that we’ve all been asked to do. 

Stay Home!!!.... if Possible

The pandemic is sending public shaming and the “cancel culture” into overdrive.  While sometimes helpful, its not always necessary.  It’s easy to criticize drunken college students having an orgy on the beach (that’s Generation Z, not Millennials folks) when we’ve all been asked to take responsibility and limit our physical interactions. Encouraging people to shake hands at a mega-church out of spite for reasonable distancing measures to proclaim your faith in God is borderline criminal.  Nevertheless, celebrities yelling at us to stay home from their mansions or yachts, or calling families who go to a park on the weekend idiots because they’re standing 5.5 feet away from others as opposed to six is patronizing.  We can’t lose sight of why were making sacrifices right now, which is to flatten the curve and spread out infections (i.e. lots of people are still infected, but not all at the same time).  A recent visit to the grocery store was enlightening.  People were terrified of each other, giving furtive glances, drenching themselves in hand sanitizer, all just to buy food.  Going shopping shouldn’t be a crime, and other shoppers are not going to kill you (though the online crowd might).  The goal is to minimize unnecessary physical interactions.  Just plan ahead, reduce the number of trips you make, and wash your hands before an after.  Its that simple.  Also, reassess what you need versus what you want.  If your psychological well-being depends on going out for ice-cream once a week, that’s ok.  If you’re taking reasonable precautions along with the rest of us, then combined we’re all making a difference and saving lives.  Keep the shaming and guilt to a minimum.  (I got a haircut the other day.  The barber wore a mask, we did fist bumps, used hand sanitizer before and after, and he sterilized the chair after I was done.  I like my thinning hair to look good.  If I think I look like shit, I’m likely to feel like shit.  Meaning?  For me the haircut was necessary.  Someone could feel the same about their nails.)  Don’t judge.  Just be responsible. 

Of course, if the medical services are reaching critical maximums, more severe measures may be needed, but should be reasonable and fact based.  People in London are being arrested for sunbathing in parks, alone, away from everyone else.  London may be reaching its medical capacity, but is this step really necessary?  Maybe, but maybe not. In my home state, Arizona, the citizenry demanded that all hair and nail salons be shuttered.  I won’t judge the effort, but it feels more fear than fact based, especially if other precautions are in place to flatten the curve and the state has to ability to respond.  Time will tell.  In Washington state, police are encouraging citizens to report their neighbors who in their judgement are violating isolation rules.  Wonderful.  KGB-style tactics are being employed and readily accepted without thought.  Will plainclothes officers show up in the middle of the night to take your neighbors away, never to be heard from again?  Should you keep a bag by the door for when your paranoid neighbor reports you?      

          

Medical Workers are Heroes

We simply don’t have enough.  The ones we have will need to work without a break for the next 18 months.  They are going to see lots of people die and others horrors most of us will never encounter in our lives.  They are heroes.  While many of us are likely to be infected (some models predict up to 2/3rds of Americans), its almost guaranteed they will, and some will die as a result.  Some already have.  They need to take extra precautions so they don’t needlessly infect others, including their parents and children.  Their faces are bruised because their masks have to fit tight.  Their families won’t see them for 18 months because they will be at work.  Retirees who are at much greater risk from the virus are returning to work to fill in.  And its not just doctors.  Its nurses, techs, administrators, cleaning staff, and those who are stacking body bags in refrigerated trucks.  They need our support now, and will need our support later.  We need to ensure they have psychological support as well.  Every single one.  Do not call them thieves, and get them what they need ASAP.  Enough said.    

  

Essential Workers

Some have been laid off, others told to work at home, and others required to report to work.  The challenges for everyone are paramount.  We bandy the term “essential workers” in our narrative however, which is creating false divisions in society.  All workers are essential, though some provide services that can be done from home, while others need to go out to keep our infrastructure moving. Both groups are equally important.  There is a creeping narrative however that those who can’t work from home are somehow heroes or risking their lives for the rest of us.  With our basic truths in mind, remember, the issue is not if but rather when we get infected, slowing the rate of infection so that our hospitals are not overwhelmed.  Should we be outraged that these workers often are low wage and have no health insurance.  Of course! Not because of the virus but because workers should earn a living wage and not have to fear for the health from deadlier diseases like cancer.  Cashiers, delivery folks, and others service providers have my upmost thanks and concern, not because they leave their houses, but because they continue to provide needed services and work inside a system rigged against them.  Congress and corporations should ensure that these people have access to affordable and quality medical care, regardless of the virus. 

China

Its essential that we don’t forget the role that China played in this outbreak.  China concealed the outbreak of the virus and restricted international experts from conducting research at a time when the virus could have been stopped.  While China claims to have controlled the outbreak inside of its borders (we’re not sure if that’s true), they’re now seeking to rewrite history as they produce medical supplies the world now desperately needs.  We cannot allow this.  Sophomoric attempts to call the virus the “Chinese virus” or “Wuhan virus” are not helpful.  Its xenophobic and puts the physical safety of ethnic-Asians in jeopardy.  It also rings hollow when public officials try to shift blame away from their own shortcomings in the pandemic by blaming China.  Incompetence and Chinese culpability are separate issues.  When this is over however, there should be a reckoning for both. 

Incompetence

I really can’t say much here lest I get in trouble.  My wife already criticized me for posting some unvarnished thoughts on Facebook, which I’ve since deleted, so for me that’s problematic enough. If you don’t already know what I’m talking about however, then you’re likely part of the problem.  Nonetheless, as part of the reframing exercise I do note that no one  was adequately prepared for the pandemic, with the exception of perhaps South Korea, which recently dealt with a SARS viral outbreak.  While warning signs were missed, what really matters is how our leadership reacted during the actual crisis.  Unfortunately, most of it is damning. Never, never forget, no matter how much they try to gaslight us. 

What’s Next?

Perhaps the hardest part of this ordeal in not knowing what happens next.  Social distancing...check. Work at home…check.  Shut down the world…check.  We’re doing our part to save millions, but what next?  As of now, no competent authority had advanced plan for what we’re supposed to do next.  That’s because people will die.  Some foolishly set Easter as a date to reopen everything, with no factual basis behind it.  Any rational medical professional, who swore an oath to “do no harm” will suggest we lock down everything until we stop the virus.  A basic truth however is that we can’t.  A harder truth is that at some point we will have to open the world back up, sooner than later, and the virus will spread.    In the one time I agree with Tucker Carlson, we honestly cannot let the scientists make the final decision on this. Science unfortunately doesn’t generally allow a middle ground.  Going back to the basic truths however, we should be focusing on flattening the curve.  Once our hospitals and medical professionals have the means and ability to handle the surge in admissions, we must reopen.  This needs to happen sooner than later.  June is probably too late.  Infections will inevitable surge again, and then we will have to take restrictive measure again.  During this critical time, our leaders must amp up production of needed supplies, expand hospital capacity and beds, and produce more tests.  This also likely means rolling shutdowns. A few weeks on, a few weeks off, until a vaccine is available for the masses.  As more people gain immunity, as we’re better able to screen and identify the infected, as our capacity to treat the ill increases (allow more flexibility with the curve), these shutdowns should be shorter in length.  People will die, but we’ll have saved as many as possible, while not destroying our future.  Remember, we’re all making a shared sacrifice.  To save others.  Not ourselves. Let’s continue to do this together, with honesty, courage, and competence.      

M